Curly's Corner Shop, the blog!

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The big Tory headache

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Irish referendum “Yes” vote will start Tory soul searching

Like many Eurosceptics I await the result of the Irish Lisbon Treaty Referendum with the expectation that Mr. Cowan’s government may well have succeeded in turning the arguments around and the Yes camp will deliver on behalf of Brussels, especially after the intervention of the EU Commission using our money to distribute “information booklets” to the Irish population. A Yes vote on the other side of the Irish Sea will start a major headache for David Cameron and the Conservative Party as it heads into Manchester for it’s final full conference before an expected general election next spring, having dangled the prospect of a referendum for UK subjects on the Lisbon Treaty, if the whole project is not ratified by the time of the election he will find it exceptionally difficult to resist the membership and grass roots should the Czechs and the Poles delay the proceedings long enough.

Today’s Independent highlights the issue as one of major concern, and, which rather like Lord Voldemort, should not be spoken of either at conference or soon after the election. I have a sneaking feeling that Cameron and Hague have spelks in their arses after metaphorically sitting on the fence for so long on the “we will not let it rest” statement, and that their real hope is that Lisbon will be ratified by all the other member states by the time that Cameron walks into No. 10. The party leadership probably feels that it has ruffled enough feathers in Europe with it’s decision to leave the EPP and form a new political grouping, and following the wishes of the grassroots as indicated in Conservative Home’s poll is unlikely to be a palatable option either, especially at a time, as Tim Montgomery points out, that Cameron wants to be seen first as a social and economic reformer and beating Labour’s budget deficit, they will be the major priorities in the early years of his administration.

The twin problems that he may face over Europe are: a commitment to hold a referendum if Lisbon has not been fully ratified, and reluctance to rock the boat with other EU leaders once he is Prime Minister. The former will cause problems with general public opinion and his party’s membership if not followed through, and if a NO vote ensued then the latter will cause major headaches with business leaders, diplomats, the EU Commission, and major political allies such as Angela Merkel and Nikolas Sarkozy.

So after today the focus on Lisbon will shift to eastern Europe where legal moves threaten to delay Lisbon’s ratification, and the campaign strategy for Cameron’s team as they approach the election, they have to come to a unified position about what to do if the treaty has been ratified before Brown departs into the sunset, and that may involve setting their noses against public opinion as other policies take priority.

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Written by curly

October 3, 2009 at 10:22 am

2 Responses

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  1. […] The big Tory headache « Curly’s Corner Shop, the blog! curly15.wordpress.com/2009/10/03/the-big-tory-headache – view page – cached Like many Eurosceptics I await the result of the Irish Lisbon Treaty Referendum with the expectation that Mr. Cowan’s government may well have succeeded in turning the arguments around and the… (Read more)Like many Eurosceptics I await the result of the Irish Lisbon Treaty Referendum with the expectation that Mr. Cowan’s government may well have succeeded in turning the arguments around and the Yes camp will deliver on behalf of Brussels, especially after the intervention of the EU Commission using our money to distribute “information booklets” to the Irish population. A Yes vote on the other side of the Irish Sea will start a major headache for David Cameron and the Conservative Party as it heads into Manchester for it’s final full conference before an expected general election next spring, having dangled the prospect of a referendum for UK subjects on the Lisbon Treaty, if the whole project is not ratified by the time of the election he will find it exceptionally difficult to resist the membership and grass roots should the Czechs and the Poles delay the proceedings long enough. (Read less) — From the page […]

  2. As you say Curly this will be a big headache.

    However its also the main game.

    We have lost control of much of our legislation, now executive decisions will start to go to Brussels also and our system of law will be undermined. Finally the EU will develop the capability to oppress its digested states.

    If we fail here all will be lost.

    Man in a Shed

    October 3, 2009 at 8:13 pm


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